Are We Facing a Chalk Heavy Day at Keeneland?
Discussing two races on what could be a chalk heavy Friday at Keeneland. Then, take a look at seven angles and the win rates of them so far at this year's Spring Meet.
What is your overall feeling on this Friday card at Keeneland?
If you had to force an answer out of me, I feel it could be very chalky.
Your opinion is all that matters in this sport, but morning lines of favorites less than 2/1 are usually very telling. Today, five races fall under this category.
Race 1 - 4/5
Race 3 - 6/5
Race 6 - 7/5
Race 9 - 8/5
Race 10 - 9/5
Even through all this, I see two races where there are prices that are worth exploring. One of which is coming out of good races and against faster fractions than what’s projected today. Then a maiden race with a runner that is making a class move that isn’t always a positive, but I think there’s an explanation to excuse it.
Also, we’ll go over seven angles and their performance at this year’s spring meet at Keeneland. These can help narrow down contenders for you this weekend.
Race 6
This is a two-horse race in my opinion between 1 Up the Creek and 5 Zen Moment. The morning line of 15/1 on Up the Creek is a price I hope sticks in this spot.
In this race, there is Zen Moment that is a proven sprinter that's a front runner, and that is it. The rest of this field is more than happy to sit off the pace. Slower-than-normal fractions are what I’m expecting. That creates a good setup for Up the Creek.
Going back to November 3rd in her maiden claiming win, those fractions were slower than normal for Churchill Downs. She sat just behind the pace and made a move at each call. Look past the mile race, she was in way over her head in there and got blown out as expected with maiden grads. The two sprints from Oaklawn Park show positive signs for today.
Starting with the December 21st race, she faced a 1st call faster than she could handle to win. What’s interesting is looking at the move into the 2nd call and seeing that she matched times with the fastest winner on the day before fading. Then, off the layoff on March 7th, she yet again saw a fast 1st call and ran one-fifth off the fastest winner on the day. Also, if you’ve been following along at Oaklawn Park over the past months, posts 1-3 have been struggling. She was in post 1 in this race and ran a good 3rd.
The point is that she’s hanging with tougher early fractions than what should be expected today. Add in the fact that the rest of this field should be sitting further off the pace, also makes her an upgrade. Posts 1-3 are winning 40% of sprints at Keeneland this spring meet. Coming from Oaklawn Park, which hasn’t been kind to inside posts, to now a track that is producing the most winners inside gives her a lot of upside at that price.
Race 7
Positioning matters, especially in maiden races. This is what makes 7 Order Restored potentially an overlooked horse in this race.
Her race on January 3rd is the one to focus on. On that date, she matched the time of the fastest winner at the 1st call. At the 2nd call, she was one-fifth slower than the fastest winner. She did all the early work before being caught.
Going to her last race, I say draw a line through it. On a sloppy and sealed track, she pressed and held position 1st to 2nd call. It is worth noting that posts 1-3 went winless on that February 15th date. Order Restored was in post 1. Also, she ran faster than any winner at the 1st call. Both things point to improvement today.
Normally, going from a claiming maiden race and going back up to a maiden special weight isn’t a good move. The difference is that her best race was against tougher competition. The move back up in class doesn’t seem to be an issue in this situation. I’ll go contrarian and not see it as a negative. Early speed has been good at Keeneland through 42 races, winning 40% of the time.
Angles for Contender Selection this Spring Meet
Seven angles to consider when looking at horses this weekend. These are more of an eye-opener when coming across runners who fit any of these angles. We’ll look at:
20/1+ Morning Line Runners
Track Odds of 20/1+
Winners Last Time Out
Maiden Winner Last Time Out
No In-The-Money Finishes in Last 6 Races
5/1+ Odds in Last 6 Races
1st Time Lasix
All of these can help with narrowing down contenders and are up to date as of yesterday’s racing on April 17th.