Are You Watching Inside Posts in Dirt Sprints at Saratoga?
Handicapping two races on the Friday card at Saratoga. Also, an update on dirt sprints so far.
First thing to note is that posts 1-3 went 4-for-4 yesterday at Saratoga.
That puts them at 13-for-22 (59%) over the past six days of racing here. Continue to watch these runners closely, and if they keep winning at a high rate.
Two races to go over on the Friday card. One of which looks to take advantage of the track profile in a dirt sprint. Then, another race looking to wire a turf sprint, but there is a stalker to keep your eye on at a price.
Race 5
A small six-horse field, but one where positioning seems to be the biggest factor to get to the winner’s circle.
2 Madeline’s Promise is the controlling speed in this race. Her last two races at Churchill Downs are the perfect foundation for an early runner facing a field they can control.
The race on May 8th is a positive with all stalkers and closers winning on the day. Then, last time out on June 21st, she was helpless trying to take a field gate to wire at 7.5 furlongs.
4 Key Low is where this race shows some value. Her price of 5/2 is way too low with the circumstances of today’s race at Saratoga.
First off, she is a closer on the dirt at Saratoga. That is an automatic negative for a short price here. Forward runners control the majority of races. Looking deeper at that maiden win, she was in post 1 at Fair Grounds over a sloppy track. Her speed figure has never been remotely close to the one she earned in that win.
Add in the fact that she is dropping in from a stakes race, Low Key should attract a good amount of attention in this race.
Fair odds on Madeline’s Promise will be 5/2. Demanding that price will be critical since she hasn’t been able to put together a win against winners in her career.
Race 7
Last week at Saratoga, inside posts and early speed went 4-for-7 in the turf sprints. 1 Make Haste fits that perfectly.
She is the controlling early speed over 3 Cloe and 4 Laurice. Both of these horses want to get to the front to win. Make Haste should make them chase her early today.
Going back to Make Haste, you need to look a little deeper into her win last time out. She was on Lasix in that optional claiming race. Today being a stakes race, she will not be on it. That is a factor as a handicapper and bettor that you have to take into consideration in these graded stakes.
Regardless, she is the horse that fits the trends of last week. It comes down to price and if she can replicate that race off Lasix today.
The next best horse in this field, in my opinion, is 7 Gata Brazil.
All three wins have come from off the pace, but today’s pace projects to be faster than she has ever faced.
Focusing on the 1st call positioning, Gata Brazil has won from 4th, 6th, and 7th place. With the presence of three early runners, she will certainly be in the middle to the back of the pack at this stage of the race.
The other factor is seeing that she has multiple wins off Lasix, which is a factor today. She is the opposite of what winners looked like at Saratoga last week, but she is proven and gets the setup needed to win.
Fair odds on her will be 9/2. That should be a price worth playing with the elimination of 3 Cloe and 6 Abientot, who should be at shorter odds.