Breakdown of Each Distance at Tampa Bay Downs
Tampa Bay Downs track profile analysis headed into Tampa Bay Derby week
The 6-furlong distance sticks out to me when looking at post-draws. Posts 7+ essentially have half the wins of posts 1-3 and posts 4-6. Those races are averaging 8.19 runners per race, so there could be validity that the outside draw is negative. When looking at 7-furlong races, we see a much different story. All three post-draws are pretty even. That leads me to believe the outside draw at shorter distances is harder to win from. Look at the 5.5-furlong races. Although a small sample size, we see posts 7+ are 2-for-23.
Running styles are more important as far as contender selection. Closers are hitting at just 20% on the meet. Forward runners are the name of the game sprinting. Look at the average positioning at the 1st and 2nd calls. Winners on average are in the front half of the pack.
The first stat that should stick out to you is that stalkers are winning 49% of races. Just as important is that closers are hitting at 15%. That tells us that yes, speed runners aren’t in the most advantageous position to win, but they have a better chance than closers this have had on this meet. That is confirmed when looking at the 1st and 2nd call averages.
Winners on average are 1.44 lengths off at the 1st call and 0.60 lengths off at the 2nd call.
That is forward running and closers will have a hard time getting close to those margins.
Post-draw isn’t as important. With just 7.78 runners per race, there isn’t enough to truly have a post-bias in my opinion.
Turf Sprints
Just 10 races on the meet at this distance. I don’t want to draw many conclusions from that. I will mention that forward running looks to have the edge here when we look at averages compared to field size. 9.20 runners per race and winners are in 3.20 place at each call. Races are just 5 furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs, not a lot of time for race shape to take place.
Post-draw and running styles have been even for this entire meet. There isn’t much to look at from a track bias perspective here.
The only thing I would draw your attention to is the 1-mile & 1/8 races. Closers are 10-for-13 at the distance. Be sure when tackling that distance to be critical to speed runners drawn in. At the same time, demand a price on a closer that is likely to be taking money from the public with this significant of a stat in play.