Do You Have a Betting Plan Based On The Tote Board?

Evaluating each of the four ways a race can be bet and a plan of attack that can help you make smarter wagers.

Jan 13, 2025

Horse racing, cracking a case, or wondering why someone took a new job. It all comes down to the same phrase.

Follow. The. Money.

One of the most efficient markets is the tote board. There’s a big advantage to watching how a race is being bet. Where is the money going? How much support is the favorite getting? All of this has to be a factor in your betting strategy.

“I can handicap good, but need to bet better.”

We all have thought that before after a race has run. Whether it is a race you should have won more money betting, or forcing a bet when you shouldn’t have. Every handicapper says they want to bet better, but what steps do they take to get there?

I’d guess not a lot since if you get online you’ll see the same things being said.

The biggest problem you’ll see daily is people being too contrarian with their betting. Blindly tossing favorites that are legit and playing too much on longshots that are helpless in races.

Take advantage of what the market is telling you and pair that up with your greatest asset as a horseplayer, your handicapping.

One of the best articles on betting horse racing is by Tom Amello. This is a strategy that combines the reality of the race, the percentages that you’re facing, and then factors in your opinion in handicapping. That is how you should be playing the game, but many aren’t.

He breaks the tote board into four different classifications based on how the betting is shaping up. These are the different betting boards you’ll face and the strategies for how to play.

Monster Board

The favorite is heavily bet.
These very low-odds horses win at such a high rate that it would be careless to always bet against these favorites.
The strategy with these races is to accept that the favorite is going to win and look to bet exactas tossing the 2nd and 3rd choices in the betting.

Two-Headed Board

The public cannot make up its mind on who it favors. Tom’s analysis says this is the board classification when the two favored horses combine for 65% to 80% of the pool.
One of these two heavily backed horses has a high percentage chance to win.
The betting strategy is to play an exacta with both favorites on top and eliminate the 2nd and 3rd choices from the place slot.

Balanced Board

The favorite is in the 8/5 to 2/1 range.
A balanced board is just that, the public has a clear 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choice in the betting.
His suggestion is to say the favorite is a play against and look to make a win bet on the 3rd choice. Then look to use a combination of exactas with the top three betting choices.

Chaos Board

No runner is 2/1 or less.
Opportunity to bet on long-odds runners that aren’t part of the top three betting choices. Don’t be afraid of Dutch betting win tickets.
Look to bet combinations of exactas with horses used to win in both 1st and 2nd place slots with other longshots you view as contenders. Also, add the morning line favorite only in the 2nd place slot.

You can dig deeper into how Tom says you should look to play each of these races and he shows some good examples of the betting board for each type of classification. He goes further into exacta betting strategy as well.

Why Is This A Good Solution For You?

The favorite is the starting point before betting on any race. With that being said, not all favorites are the same.

What this strategy does is guide you into seeing how the market is supporting the favorite. How many times have you played against that 7/5 shot that ends up rolling and blowing up all the bets you have?

Remember, the tote board is the most efficient market. Your job is to find the few times a day when it’s out of balance.

This can help you with multi-race wagers too. There are plenty of ways to bend this to your advantage. Maybe look to single a logical favorite in a monster board race with those contenders you see in what should be a balanced race containing a false favorite you’re planning on tossing.

Many times, we can predict how the betting should end up after handicapping the race. Start thinking in terms of what type of board classification you could be facing and what your possible wagers could be.

Let Your Handicapping Finally Be The Difference Maker

The best part of utilizing these betting board classifications is that you can take advantage of your handicapping.

Think about the monster boards you face daily. Many of these races have a legit favorite and it is hard to justify placing win bets on say a 4/5 shot. According to this strategy, you will agree that the favorite is the most likely winner and look to key them on top in exactas. Where your edge kicks in is looking at the rest of the field.

The 2nd and 3rd betting choices need to be tossed. Use your handicapping to confirm that. If you feel either of these horses will still be able to edge out the rest of the field for second place, let that be a sign to pass the race. It is a chalky result to come.

Balanced boards are some of the best opportunities in my opinion for two reasons. First off, they have favorites that fall plenty of times to logical horses. Second, with the winning rates of favorites rising, you can find spots where that 2/1 favorite is legit and should be backed with your money.

The common denominator again? Your handicapping.

Let your handicapping split the hairs of these short-priced runners. Take the strategy for each type of board and mix in your experience, thoughts, and angles in handicapping to zero in on sharper bets.

I’ve been adding the tote board classification on each race with the daily profiles for you. You’ll also see the top three betting choices and the payout if they won or placed. It is a good tool for evaluating how efficient the market is with each type of betting board at a specific track, surface, or distance. This is even more beneficial when handicapping past races and seeing how the market wagered. I’ve found that is another good tool to confirm if the horse was a serious threat to win the race you’re evaluating.

Go into this week and see if using these strategies brings you more success in your betting. There are plenty of times you will start to pass races where you agree with the public and there is nothing to exploit in the market. Passing races when your handicapping agrees with the public, not wasting betting units, and wagering smarter with these strategies all will make you a more profitable player.