Is There Any Value in the Ashland Stakes Today?
Evaluating each race today at Keeneland for day 2 of the Spring Meet. See why the Ashland Stakes looks to be a chalky event.
Day two of eight straight days of Keeneland racing! No better time to be a horse player.
Yesterday there were six dirt routes. Three early winners, two stalkers, and one closer. Small sample size, but more importantly, it shows the rain wasn’t just handing speed the wins. Look at the dirt sprints, all three were won by stalkers.
Day two is still a bit of a feeling-out process with the amount of rain that has hit Lexington. I will say that I felt the races had logical results. There weren’t any real head scratchers of a horse improving out of nowhere. Curious what you think about the results too!
Let’s dive into each race again and see where there is opportunity today.
Note: These are as of scratches at 11:00 am.
Race 1
A - 8
B - 3
C - 7, 10
I’m not going against these Ward runners in any 4.5-furlong sprint. He dominates these races, and it isn’t a secret. Yesterday's race was predictable with the rain and outside post to see his horses not win. 8 Pinky Finger has been flying in her workouts and only has to navigate the not-optimal post position. So let’s see if that is a major factor again in this race.
Race 2
A - 9
B - 4
C - 9
Off the turf, and that takes away the ability to play against 6 Spaliday, who was scratched because of the surface switch. Hopefully, she comes back in another race soon. I wasn’t impressed with her recent race.
I’m going to 8 Peignoir because she has the best early speed in this race. Two races ago, she ran faster than any winner at the 2 and 4 furlong calls. Last time out, she tried to go wire to wire at Oaklawn Park, and that isn’t an easy task to accomplish. She does have a wire-to-wire win here at Keeneland last fall, and that line could be what we see again today.
Race 3
A - 3, 8
B - 2
This is one of those chalky races you run into where the top three choices all fit. I have put 2 Velvet Vortex as a “B” horse for a few reasons. The angle of looking to fade maiden winners last time out isn’t as strong at Keeneland, but I feel her win looks better than it is on paper. That 1st call was average for winners on February 15th at Fair Grounds. The track also favored speed and stalkers. Also, posts 1-3 won half of the dirt sprints over the meet. A lot was in her favor in that race.
8 Lynn’s Milky Way is sneaky in here. She should see almost a repeat of her last race. Sit in 3rd behind Velvet Vortex and 3 Shoot It True, and run them down after the 1st call. She is coming out of the fastest pace of anyone’s last race. The running line is much stronger than 7/2 to me. She made positional and beaten length moves at each call in that win. I would not let her drift above that without holding a win ticket.
Race 4
A - 11
B - 1
I’d assume most will have 11 Hereforagoodtime as the early speed in this race. She does come in with upside from her last race, and now being on the dirt. That turf race she was in last time out had all stalkers and closers win. She also ran faster than any winner at the 4 and 6 furlong calls in that race before being caught. I’d assume her odds are nowhere close to 4/1 in this race.
If 1 Straight Forward runs that stalking trip again, she could take this race no problem. I just favored the early speed in a short field over her.
Race 5
A - 9, 11
B - 4
C - 2
Anytime I see an early horse set the fractions and fade when facing a bias, I take note. That is what 4 La Neige dealt with in her one career start. All dirt sprints were won by stalkers and closers that day at Gulfstream Park. Ignore the finishing position. That’s what happens when early horses fade: they totally quit. Also note that La Neige ran faster than any winner on the day at the 1st call. I believe that shows how hard she was going early in this race. A speed-friendly track like Keeneland could be the difference today.
The concern for La Neige is that 11 Unwavering Trust can handle fast early fractions better than most maidens. She stalked a 21 & 2/5 first call and finished 2nd in that race behind a heavy favorite. That is a race maidens build off of easily. I’d guess she goes off below her 5/2 morning line.
9 Kapoor is one where I’d be hesitant to make her an “A” horse until I saw both races were won by early runners on that February 9th date at Gulfstream Park. Speed dominated that meet and so did inside posts. She was in post 10 and still beat seven other runners. That running line can win this race, and I didn’t want to downgrade her after seeing the factors she faced in that start.
Race 6
A - 2
B - 4
C - 10
Another off-the-turf race, and it was hard to get around 2 Georgie W. I feel he’s better on the dirt than the turf. He does have a win on an off-track back on June 15, 2023. That same trip is what should be expected today, being behind the early speed 4 Wico can set. It will be a matter of is Wico is too good on the front.
I do want to touch on the “C” horse I’ve included. In his last start, 10 Tough Little Nut was in post 2 on a day where posts 1-3 went winless. That could be the reason for his improvement more than expected today. Also, two races back he ran a good race in an off-the-turf event.
Race 7
A - 5
B - 2
C - 3
The scratch of 1 Gunmetal blows up the complete tossing of 2 Colloquial I was planning to do. The pace isn’t going to be as fast now with 8 Rolando being in front. It is hard to think the fractions will be too much for Colloquial to overcome, but I will be just a little less aggressive with playing 5 Gate to Wire.
Toss Gate to Wire’s late race in the Fountain of Youth. He is a sprinter. Looking at his stakes win two races back, he should be much closer to Rolando with his Bris Pace Ratings of 95 and 110. That would have him leading, but he seems to be fine letting whatever pace come to him. I’d expect to see him and Colloquial battling it out late. Price is the determining factor on top of him blowing out that 7-furlong sprint two races back. He is the most versatile runner in this field.
Race 8
A - 2, 6
B - 11
C - 4
Speed on the turf routing is usually a good sign at Keeneland. You can be playing against a short price on an unfavorable track to them. 11 Mi Bago, showing up running a similar race to last time, can blow this field out. The question will be if he is too far ahead in the stretch for the closers to catch him late. Keeneland does have that long stretch run, so they should have no excuses. I just can’t toss Mi Bago because he is a legit front-running turfer. I’ll just keep any coverage to him in multi-race plays. I wouldn’t feel confident placing win tickets at or below his morning line.
Assuming the pace is fast early, both “A” horses look to benefit the most from that. 2 Reagan’s Wit has the best running line of anyone last race if you ask me. He was on a bad inside day at Tampa Bay and ran one-fifth off the fastest winner at the 6-furlong call. He is right there with Mi Bago in the speed figure department, and is a horse I’m hoping can be a decent odds with the full field.
6 Versus is moving up in class, but I couldn’t pass over when looking at the pace of his last two races. He, too, has been facing faster-than-normal fractions in his turf routes in Gulfstream Park. He is 10/1 on the morning line for a reason, and it’s because he needs a big improvement to win. That is understandable. He did run the fastest 4 and 6 furlong calls on March 9th at Gulfstream Park. That is a positive sign to me coming into this race.
Race 9
A - 5
B - 2, 4
This is a race where you probably single between 4 Muhimma or 5 Running Away on tickets. I landed on 5 Running Away at the top pick. Muhimma can win from the lead, but Running Away looks like a do-or-die front runner. Looking at the beaten lengths, she can handle pressure and go on. That will be important in this spot today because Muhimma will be right off her. You see that when looking at the two sprint wins to start her career.
I have this as a chalky race and have a hard time going anywhere outside of these two obvious choices.
Race 10
A - 11
B - 6, 9
This was a tricky race to break down to cap off the Monday card. I feel the first call is the most important to me in this. 8 Bindi is racing on dirt for the first time in her career. If she refuses to run next to my top choice, 11 Golden Irish, these fractions might heat up.
It’s hard to figure out Golden Irish because she should have won her last race. But when looking at the 1st call, it was going too fast for her to win. She did run what looks to be a good stalking race, and that gives me a feeling that she might be able to stalk in this spot today. In that Fair Grounds race, she matched times with the fastest winner at the 4-furlong call. She was also one-fifth off the fastest winner of the day, which was this race. So it’s not giving excuses, more like explanations for her performance. Either way, I’ll give her one last shot in here.