Updated Pimlico Track Profile & Two Races to Target at Churchill Downs After Preakness
Full track profile at Pimlico for Preakness Stakes Day and then two races for the night slate at Churchill Downs
A full up to date Pimlico track profile for Preakness Stakes Day is below. Three key takeaways going into racing today in Baltimore:
Early runners are controlling dirt sprints
Posts 1-3 have won 5-of-7 turf routes
Closers are 7-for-15 in dirt routes
If you haven’t gotten your racing fix after the Preakness, start looking at the Churchill Downs card that starts at 6 p.m. Two races stand out right now. One has a 5/2 morning line favorite who is coming out of a key race and is facing an easier field. Then, a horse that has run against the grain of the track in their last three starts. They’re 6/1 on the morning line and look to be good value to target.
Pimlico Dirt Sprints
Posts 1-3: 7 wins (41%)
Posts 4-6: 8 wins (47%)
Posts 7+: 2 wins (12%)
Early: 11 wins (65%)
Stalker: 5 wins (29%)
Closer: 1 win (6%)
Pimlico Dirt Routes
Posts 1-3: 7 wins (47%)
Posts 4-6: 6 wins (40%)
Posts 7+: 2 wins (13%)
Early: 5 wins (33%)
Stalker: 3 wins (20%)
Closer: 7 wins (47%)
Pimlico Turf Sprints
Posts 1-3: 3 wins (3%)
Posts 4-6: 3 wins (33%)
Posts 7+: 3 wins (33%)
Early: 5 wins (56%)
Stalker: 1 win (11%)
Closer: 3 wins (33%)
Pimlico Turf Routes
Posts 1-3: 5 wins (71%)
Posts 4-6: 1 win (14%)
Posts 7+: 1 win (14%)
Early: 2 wins (29%)
Stalker: 0 wins (0%)
Closer: 5 wins (71%)
Churchill Downs Race 5
This race comes down to the 2nd call. 7 Frosty Indulgence running another 44 & 3/5 seconds to the 4 furlong mark should bury this field.
That was faster than any winner on the day at the 2nd call.
Looking deeper, the winner of that race was Gambler’s Trail. He closed to win that race at Keeneland on April 12th. Then, came back to win a mile race on May 1st at Churchill Downs. That gives more validity to Frotsy Indulgence’s performance. He ran on the pace and got caught by a closer from the clouds.
This race today is a much easier spot as far as competition. 1 Holster is coming off a maiden claiming win. 2 Bourbon’s Fault, 4 Strummin, and 6 Lou’s Legacy all come in with no form. The two main threats are 3 Hesper and 5 Pineland. They haven’t faced a 2nd call as fast as Frosty Indulgence can run.
5/2 seems to be a big stretch for Frosty Indulgence, I’d expect more in the 8/5 range. Either way, he looks to be a solid and legit favorite to target.
Churchill Downs Race 7
1 Evening News is finally getting a field where he can control the early fractions. Each of his last three races has had serious excuses.
February 6th at Turfway Park, all stalkers and closers won. Evening News led and ran faster than any winner at the 2 and 4 furlong calls. He matched the fastest winner at the 6-furlong call. March 28th at Turfway Park, all stalkers and closers won again. He led and ran faster than any winner at the first three calls. Then, on April 26th at Churchill Downs, both races were won by closers. Evening News yet again led and ran faster than any winner at the first three calls.
6/1 morning line on a horse that has had the track playing against them in their last three starts is a big discrepancy. Add in the fact that they’ve been running faster than winners, and that is another upgrade.
The public will more than likely drive the price down some, but 5 Norwich should help take some attention away from Evening News. Norwich won at this level two races ago at Fair Grounds on a sloppy track. Two things to be aware of about that race.
First off, that speed figure is a major outlier of what Norwich normally runs. Second, the fractions of that race aren’t as fast as Evening News can run. Norwich should be pressing the fractions Evening News can set. Looking through the rest of his past races, coming from off the pace hasn’t been too good for him.
I’ll set Evening News at 9/2 fair odds and look to steal this race on the front end.