Watch Out for THESE Track Trends Winning 40+% of the Time
Diving into the track profiles for Belmont at the Big A, Churchill Downs, and Monmouth Park. See what adjustments to make this week betting and handicapping.
Belmont at the Big A Angles Winning 40+%
Closers are winning 62% of turf routes
Posts 1-3 are winning 58% of dirt mile races
Early runners are winning 49% of dirt sprints
Early runners are winning 48% of dirt mile races
Posts 4-6 are winning 44% of dirt sprints
Churchill Downs Angles Winning 40+%
Closers are winning 58% of turf routes
Posts 4-6 are winning 51% of dirt routes
Stalkers are winning 49% of dirt routes
Posts 4-6 are winning 48% of dirt mile races
Early runners are winning 46% of dirt sprints
Early runners are winning 45% of dirt mile races
Monmouth Park Angles Winning 40+%
Posts 4-6 are winning 61% of turf routes
Posts 1-3 are winning 54% of dirt routes
Early runners are winning 54% of dirt routes
Early runners are winning 51% of dirt sprints
Posts 4-6 are winning 45% of dirt sprints
Be search to check out how favorites are performing per track profile at each track. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices in the betting are broken down by how many times they have won or placed. These charts can help you find which races to look at to beat short prices.
Closers are winning 21% of dirt sprints, 10% of dirt mile races, and 13% of dirt routes. Forward runners are controlling these races. Early runners have won 34-of-70 (49%) of dirt sprints, and 23-of-48 (48%) of dirt mile races. Horses that do not project to be forward must be viewed as vulnerable in these races.
Where closers are performing well are in turf routes. They have won 13-of-21 (62%) races. Last week, they won all three of the races.
Posts 1-3 went 5-for-20 last week in the dirt sprints. Two things to focus on. First will be any inside post runner from this week, their next start. There looks to be a bias that was playing against them. Second will be how posts 1-3 perform this week. If they continue to struggle, be ready to pivot and look to fade them.
Stalkers keep on winning the dirt routes at Churchill Downs. 6-of-10 races last week were won by stalkers. The other four wins came by early runners. Horses on the front have started to not fade as hard in these races. Over three weeks, they are 13-for-31, hitting at a 42% clip. That is higher than their 30% win rate overall on the spring meet.
Closers continue to control the turf routes. 23-of-41 races have been won by closing. That is a 59% hit rate. They have won 11 of the last 18 races.
Early runners went 8-for-10 last week in dirt routes. Stalkers won the other two races. That is in line with what the track profile has been showing going two turns. Closers are 3-for-41 on the meet.
Dirt sprints followed the same trend. Three early runners and three stalkers won the seven races. 51% of these dirt sprints have been won by early runners. This week will be important to watch how runners come in. Especially if this is the turn at Monmouth Park, where early runners start to really dominate.
3-of-5 turf routes were won by posts 4-6 last week. There are so few of these races weekly, but the middle posts have been dominating them. After six weeks, posts 4-6 have won 14-of-23 races.