3 Saratoga Races to Attack Opening Day
Handicapping three races on opening day at Saratoga
Officially opening day at Saratoga today and probably “officially” the start of summer for most horseplayers!
A few races stood out on this card from a betting perspective.
One where a class dropping favorite has holes
A race where the favorite might go off at a good price
A pace scenario that could collapse and reward a stalker
Let’s see if we can zag where the public zigs to kick off the 2025 Saratoga meet.
Race 2
A 4/5 morning line favorite in a claiming race is always interesting. There’s no doubt that 7 Devil in Disguise is going to be a heavy favorite. He is making a big drop in class after finishing 2nd at Keeneland this spring.
I’ll ask you the age-old handicapper question, “What is the trainer doing?”
This is a horse that has shown promise, is coming out of a strong race, and is now in for a claim. I’d be leery of singling this horse and moving on. A few things to consider:
Keeneland turf plays to off-the-pace runners
He was in a good post at Keeneland
Saratoga is favoring forwardly positioned runners
Posts 1-3 went 4-for-7 last week
Devil in Disguise could show up and dust this field from a pure class perspective. That wouldn’t be a shock. I’d look to see this race with a set of contrarian eyes.
5 Korrongo is the horse in the field with the most upside.
This starts with seeing that he is a stalking horse. After his maiden win, he ran on the lead and which further supports that he is a stalker. Those three races on the Tapeta should have lines drawn through them. That isn’t a surface he can be competitive on.
Since being claimed, he has been competitive in three turf sprints. That is the key with Korrongo today, you are catching him on the improve.
He is in his third start off the layoff, has increased his speed figures each of his last two starts, and ran faster than any winner at the first two calls in his last start.
All are handicapping indicators of improvement to come.
Korrongo was running with the pace in that turf sprint last time out, and that isn’t a running style he is able to win doing. With the presence of three other early runners in the field today, he should get his stalking trip. If you want, you can call this a longshot play from me on the card. I just wouldn’t solely lean on Devil in Disguise at the short price.
Race 8
Two divisions of the De Le Rose Stakes this year, and the second division seems to be fairly straightforward. This seems like a two horse race, but one that still leans toward the favorite.
4 Movin’ On Up is the most deserving favorite on the day. There’s a reason why she is 6/5. Both of her last two races came with post position biases she ran against.
If you remember last week talking about New Century and Test Score, that May 3rd date at Churchill Downs in turf routes has been circled. Posts 7+ won all the races on that day. Movin’ On Up was in post 2 on May 3rd.
Then, going to June 1st at Churchill Downs, she faced the same bias. Posts 7+ won each race. Movin’ On Up was in post 2 again. Looking deeper into that race last time out, she ran stronger early than any winner on the day. Movin’ On Up ran faster than any winner on the day at the 2, 4, and 6 furlong calls.
Add all of that in with the drop in class, you’re facing a favorite that looks as solid as they come.
With all that being said, early speed on the inner turf was good at Saratoga last week.
They won 5-of-9 races, and 8 Spinning Colors is the lone speed in this race. What makes her even more enticing is the 10/1 morning line. If she is around those odds, you’d be able to Dutch bet her with Movin’ On Up.
Both these horses have the highest percentage to win in my opinion, and going deeper would expose you to horses who aren’t as proven as these two.
Race 9
Facing a race with a favorite at 7/2 normally is a positive. In this case, it could be a positive for the horse. Just looking at the odds to probability, 3 Killy Start has a better than 22% chance of winning. I wouldn’t go below 5/2 after looking at the pace scenario.
This race starts with looking at both early runners, 4 Short Shift and 7 Problematica. Short Shift is faster than Problematica, but hasn’t won running a 2nd call faster than 46 seconds. Problematica isn’t as fast enough early to beat Short Shift to the 1st call. The way I’m looking at this race is choosing Short Shift over Problematica, but still leaning on stalkers since the pace may be faster than she can win setting.
That’s where Killy Start starts to look to be a serious player. It starts with looking at the Belmont at the Big A track profile. Posts 4-6 held the edge in wins for the spring meet. They were winning above the 45% mark at one point. By the end of the meet, they finished with two more wins than posts 1-3. This June 27th day had no winners in posts 1-3, and Killy Start was in post 2.
More importantly, early runners won all races on the day. She came from way off the pace and made a move at each call.
Both are factors in the performance she has in that race. Looking at the 2nd call of that race on June 27th, it is close to what to expect from both of our early runners in this race. It comes down to not being caught eating 2/1 on a horse like her. If that is what we’re facing, look to pivot and fade her as being overbet.
The other horse to look deeper into is 6 Despo’s Dream. She’s already an overlay on the morning line after looking at her last two starts. Looking at May 23rd, she won over a sealed, muddy track. That is going to be key when looking at the next race. Don’t forget the angle of horses coming out of races over an off track and running a competitive race. You expect them to regress in speed figures. Despo’s Dream ended up running a better race. She ran three points higher in her next start.
Taking it a step further, Despo’s Dream ran faster than either winner on the day at the 1st and 2nd calls. We could have expected her to lose, but not put in such a strong performance.
All of this is a positive in this spot where both early runners look to may eliminate themselves, and Despo’s Dream can sit right behind them.
This race is truly a watch-the-odds situation. I’d say 5/2 is fair on Killy Start and 3/1 on Despo’s Dream.