Why Sloppy or Muddy Tracks Can Bring Profits Later
Exploring a handicapping angle of horses regressing more after a race over a sloppy or muddy track. Then, looking at a race where this angle helped make it a profitable bet.
Finding vulnerable horses that the public doesn’t believe so is the key to creating value.
Did you know that horses racing over a sloppy or muddy track are more likely to regress next time out?
Horses are improving or declining race after race for a variety of reasons. But this angle of racing over a bad track shows it takes more out of a horse than a race over a fast track. This theory does a few things to sway the betting in your favor:
Find vulnerable horses who ran a good race in the wet conditions last time out, which means the public will value them higher than they should.
Create a betting pool to exploit in your favor with horses who are being overlooked.
Give a spot play possibility in a race that you may have passed before.
Running A Hard Race On an Off-Track Last Time Out
Knowing if a horse is going to run better or worse than expected is what all handicappers are seeking each time they open the past performances. It isn’t advised to use races over wet tracks as an accurate representation of a horse’s potential on a good weather day of racing.
Tracks that are muddy or sloppy play much different than fast tracks.
That is where the edge is with this angle.
A hard race on a muddy or sloppy track takes more out of a horse than a race on a fast track. These tracks, for the most part, are more tiring to run on.
Horses that ran on a muddy or sloppy track and were on the lead or within two lengths of the leader at the stretch call or finish are expected to regress more than normal in their next start.
Why is this such a strong angle to exploit as a handicapper and bettor?
Sloppy or muddy tracks are some of the toughest to win on for horses. Both are different definitions, and it is important to know them.
Sloppy tracks are where the surface is sloppy, but underneath, it is hard. Think of a storm that is coming in and the track prepared the surface beforehand. Usually, they’ll seal the tracks to keep the water on top so it doesn’t get into the base layer.
Muddy tracks are when the rain is seeping down into the base of the track. Think of a swamp; that is what you’re running in.
Why Should You Play Against These Horses?
These tracks are the most tiring to run on. If a horse is within two lengths of the leader or on the lead in the late stages, it is safe to assume that more effort was put into the race. That takes more out of a horse than if the race were over a fast track.
The public loves to look at a horse’s last race and expect that to be the same result in their next start. They are expecting a repeat performance. This is where this angle is powerful.
You see a horse with a good finish and expect them to do the same in their next start. The problem is that if the race was over a sloppy or muddy track, it took more effort to get into that position. Thus taking more out of the horse. Horses who finish close are almost always certain to be a short price in their next start.
Racing on a heavily wet track, being that close to the front in the late stages, and being a short price are all you need to see to eliminate them from win contention.
The only caution to have is when looking at higher-level horses, such as stakes quality runners. They are the fittest and are given more time to recover between races. This angle is most potent with lower-level horses who run back quicker and aren’t as reliable.
How You Could Have Cashed This Angle
The 6th race at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 15th, was a prime example of eliminating horses who ran a competitive race on a track that was sloppy or muddy.
Quick eliminations could be made with three runners. 6 Melly’s Birkin isn’t fast enough early in the race to contend against the pace that Cocktail Humor should show early.
8 Esperanza’s Spirit and 9 Maxie Lady are coming into a higher class track at Oaklawn Park from Prairie Meadows, which is going to be tough on them. I’d assume most handicappers would agree this is a lesser track than Oaklawn Park. No case to make for either of them.
Going through each runner, seeing horses who ran to the competitive race over an off-track angle, and using the daily profiles to guide us made this Maiden Claiming $75,000 race one to bet.
Right off the bat, you see the red highlights on the 2nd call and final time. That is utilizing the daily profile of the track and tells us that Chitoz’s Blur ran slower than any winner on that day at these calls.
Going further over to the top three finishers, you’ll see a letter “M” for a monster board. The circle around the winner is the favorite, supporting that the public was correct with heavily betting on them.
Chitoz’s Blur wasn’t close to the pace, ran too slow, and is moving up in class. Not a contender.
Here is the first horse you see that ran on a sloppy and sealed track last time out. Checking the beaten lengths, she was in 1st place at the stretch call. She fits the angle of a horse who should regress more than expected.
Looking at that last race on February 15th, you see the green highlights, which indicate that Cocktail Humor ran faster than any winner on the day at those calls. She was in post 3, and that is circled because of the note “BI,” indicating a “bad inside.” That notes that posts 1-3 went winless on the day.
Looking at the positioning, it is clear this horse wants the lead. She had it and got caught late.
Remember the angle, horses who are the leader or within two lengths at the stretch call or finish on a surface other than fast ran a harder race. It took more effort in that race to be in that position.
In this case, Cocktail Humor was on the lead the whole time until getting pasted after the stretch call. She ran remarkably hard. If this was on a fast track, she would be a track bias play to consider because of post position and running too fast. With the off track, you want to toss her and take the stance that she will regress after the big effort.
The red highlights tell us that Belvedere Club doesn’t have enough to finish a race off. Her last two efforts show that she can stalk but needs a slower pace to compete. Moving up in class isn’t going to be a positive for her.
Annie Bee was the key to this race. She comes in with a flashy line on a track other than fast and a good speed figure. She and Cocktail Humor ran in the same race on February 15th. Annie Bee is a different case, though.
The yellow highlight indicates that she ran as fast as the fastest winner on the day at the 2-furlong mark. From there, she ran average times and finished 2nd. At the stretch call, she was 1/2 length off the leader and qualifies as a horse to regress after the taxing effort.
If that still isn’t enough to catch your attention, look at her post position. She was in post 4 with a bad inside bias. Annie Bee ran with the bias of the track and still couldn't win. This is a horse that attracts the public and one you should play against.
Buzzworthy is a threat on the fact that she is dropping into the maiden claiming ranks. If you look to the left of her line, the track produced all speed and stalker winners. She was a closer on that day and ran slower than any winner at the 2-furlong and 6-furlong calls.
She has an outside chance and offers more upside than the two horses coming out of a race on a sloppy sealed track.
Routers cutting back into sprints are usually bad bets. The races are much faster early sprinting, and routers don’t naturally have the speed early to be engaged in the race. Zen Dreams looks like one of those horses.
Her last race was ridiculously slow, and that was running with the stalker and closer bias that is noted on the left side. The upside would be running on a bad inside bias and dropping in class. Oaklawn Park plays fair, but winners, for the most part, are positionally competitive early in the sprints. She doesn’t project to do that and is on the outside looking in.
Favorites are always the starting point when handicapping, and Good Call sure is in a good spot. Normally, the red highlights would indicate buyer beware, but the decision is easy to look to beat the public with the elimination of other horses.
What is interesting is that one of the most basic handicapping philosophies would tell you to bet Good Call. Look at her speed figure of 77 last time out. Annie Bee ran a 70 in her lone start, and we are expecting her to regress. Belvedere Club ran a 70 also and is facing tougher in this race. Buzzworthy ran a 67 in her only start and should be a candidate to improve, dropping to Maiden Claiming for the first time. She still is 10 points off of Good Call.
Good Call will be forward and showed in her last race that she is capable of beating other horses and making moves. She passed runners and cut into the beaten lengths. In the end, that speed figure tops this field. Then, pairing it with the elimination of two horses who will take money, it makes Good Call a legit favorite.
Creating an Odds Line Around This Angle at Play
This was the fair odds line that I created for this race. There are two ways to look at this race.
Agreeing with the public’s choice is a sign to pass the race.
Look to take advantage of the two horses coming out of a hard race on an off-track.
Taking option two is what I’d argue for because of how Cocktail Humor and Annie Bee should regress. Add in the fact that two horses are shipping in from a lesser track and that Zen Dreams is cutting back from routes to sprints, I felt my hand was forced.
Looking at win bets, maybe you would be swayed not to play because Good Call isn’t a huge overlay from the odds line created. What I ended up doing was making a Dutch bet on Good Call and Buzzworthy. They both were overlays and “A” horses on my ABC chart.
Vertical bettors could have crushed this race keying Good Call on top if they could make the case for Chotiz’s Blur to run in 2nd.
Most important is how did Cocktail Humor and Annie Bee perform?
Cocktail Humor ran as expected. Go for the lead and have nothing left late. Annie Bee completely blew the break. These two horses took up roughly 36% of the betting pool. Finding an edge like that puts you in a position to make winning plays over the long haul.
Testing This Theory Moving Forward
When handicapping this week or looking at old past performances, see if any horses have run on the lead or within two lengths of the leader at the stretch call or finish over a sloppy or muddy track. Should you look to fade them in their next start? Did they regress or improve?
I’d be willing to guess more times than not, they regressed. Remember the angle:
Horses that ran on a muddy or sloppy track and were on the lead or within two lengths of the leader at the stretch call or finish are expected to regress more than normal in their next start.
Nothing in racing is absolute, but finding spots where horses are overvalued is the path to more profits. I’d encourage you to add this angle to your toolbox. Look to leverage this angle against short-priced horses and eliminate them from your tickets.