How to Win More Without Changing Your Handicapping
Stop gambling and start strategizing. How Dutch betting can make you a more profitable player.
Did you know you could increase your win rate with just one simple strategy change?
If you’re sick of correctly picking winners but not cashing on them, you’re right on the edge of being profitable.
Most horseplayers make the same mistake over and over again. They bet like gamblers instead of strategists. They pick one horse per race and let their ego get in the way.
And what happens when that horse runs second or third to the “other” one you liked? You beat yourself up for “almost” being right, or how you should have had it. Shoulda, woulda and coulda don’t put money in your pocket.
There’s a better way. A strategy that the sharpest bettors use to increase their win percentage and efficiently grow their bankroll.
Playing a One-Horse Game in a Multi-Horse Race
You do the work. You handicap the race. You find two or three horses you say are the contenders.
But what do you do? You pick one and leave the others out.
Maybe it’s because:
You feel like you have to pick just one.
You don’t want to spread too thin.
You think betting multiple horses kills your profits.
But here’s the truth: By only playing one horse, you’re betting against your own best judgment.
How many times have you handicapped a race perfectly? You spot a vulnerable favorite, identify the two best contenders to beat that short price and you go bet on one of your selections to win. The race goes off and you watch your “other” horse win.
How many times have you nailed the pace scenario but backed the wrong off-the-pace runner?
How often do you feel like you’re finding the winner but not cashing?
What if you didn’t have to miss winning as often?
What if one change in your betting strategy could help you increase your win percentage and not go on long losing streaks? Would you be willing to make the shift to take advantage of your handicapping abilities?
Most want to, but few do.
How to Increase Your Win Percentage
Dutch betting is a strategy where you spread your bet across two horses in a race in a way that ensures the same profit no matter which one wins.
It doesn’t mean betting every horse. It doesn’t mean killing your ROI. It means:
Maximizing Your Edge - If two horses offer value, why limit yourself to one?
Higher Win Percentage - More winners means a steadier growth of your bankroll.
Less Variance, Higher Confidence - Turning “almost” had the winner into actually cashing tickets.
The best way to think about this strategy is that you’re creating your own entry of runners. Just as you get two horses when you have 1/1A runners, betting two horses is making your own entry.
How Much Do You Bet On Each Runner?
That is the hurdle you’ll face when going to bet. You want to weigh your total wager across your two horses to give you approximately the same return if either wins.
A good rule of thumb is to shoot for a 50% return on your bet if either horse wins. Below is a chart made by Huey Mahl in the 80’s that will help you know what percentage of your bet to place on each runner.
Take the lowest of your two runners’ odds and find it on the top row of the chart. Then intersect it with the odds of your other horse on the left side. Where it lands is the percentage of the wager you need to place on the lower odds runner.
For example, you have a race where your two horses are 3/1 and 6/1. Locate 3/1 on the top of the chart and trace it down to where 6/1 on the left side intersects. You’ll see that 65% of your total bet needs to be on the 3/1 horse and 35% needs to be on the 6/1 horse. If the total bet is $100, you’d bet $65 on the 3/1 horse and $35 on the 6/1 horse. This will get you as close as possible to the same return if either horse wins the race.
What if the two horses you want to bet are 3/2 and 5/2? When you see where their lines intersect, there isn’t a black dot. That means you are looking at a combination that isn’t at that 50% ROI minimum. Avoid utilizing the Dutch bet strategy in these situations. The returns do not outweigh the risk.
When to Implement Dutch Betting
The first thing to realize is that you aren’t going to solely implement this strategy to every single race you make win bets. That is the biggest misconception horse players have with Dutch betting.
Most horseplayers assume Dutch betting doesn’t work in today’s game, but that simply isn’t true. The main argument is saying the amount of short prices winning makes it hard to wager on two horses to win in a race. That is true. But how do you get around that issue?
It starts with race selection.
Remember the four tote boards you encounter as a bettor? Those can be a quick guideline as to when you should or shouldn’t look to use the two-horse Dutch bet.
Every race starts with the analysis of the favorite and how much support they are getting from the public. The Dutch betting strategy is different for each type of board you face.
Using The Tote Board as a Tool For Betting
The four betting boards you’ll see are the monster board, 2-horse board, balanced board, and chaos board. Each has its own analysis and how the race is being viewed by the public.
It cannot be stressed enough how efficient the market is in horse racing. Finding the inefficiencies is the key skill you develop daily and over time of handicapping and betting.
Monster Boards Are Tough to Beat
Favorites at 3/2 or lower win at a higher rate than average. Many times you will agree with the public and don’t want to accept low odds on a logical favorite. How do you combat these races most times?
It is passing and utilizing your money in another race.
You have to get comfortable with this. Not forcing plays for the sake of betting.
The best use of the two-horse bet strategy in these races is when you want to bet on a longer-odds runner. See if you can pair it up with the favorite you cannot toss from your handicapping. You now have created a wager that can give you a way to make win bets and cover the only horse you see as a threat to the favorite.
2-Horse Boards Are Harder to Navigate
Facing a race where two horses are competing for favoritism is hard to land on contenders outside of the logical horses. They’re co-favorites for a reason.
The betting strategy facing these races is to key the favorites on top in the exacta with longer shot horses in the 2nd place slot. That is to hold yourself accountable for looking for value in this pool because it is hard to do so in the win pool.
Dutch betting is possible facing this tote board but it falls to your handicapping and contender selection process. Very few opportunities show themselves in these races, and you need to have a grasp on a horse’s percentage chance of winning before making a two-horse win wager.
Balanced Betting Races Offer a Place to Capitalize
Facing a tote board where you have a clear favorite at odds presenting overlay options, your handicapping is vital to making decisions.
The best use of the Dutch bet is in these races where the favorite is between 8/5 to 2/1 and you say they are vulnerable or overbet. The contenders you say can win the race should be at overlay odds to capitalize on. Tossing the favorite and making a two-horse win bet on your contenders is a strong angle to take. That favorite takes up 30% or more of the pool and puts you into a positive betting situation.
Remember, the foundational rule of betting on these races is to look to play against the favorite and have a win bet on the 3rd choice. Where you can leverage this is with your analysis of the race. Going through the rest of the field and seeing which contenders can beat the favorite. Maybe you say the 2nd and 4th choices are the main threats. Getting a Dutch wager on them shouldn’t be a problem.
There’s also the other scenario you face in fuller fields. The favorite could be going off at 8/5 but your handicapping says the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th choices are eliminations. You could pair up that logical favorite in a Dutch bet with a longer odds runner you don’t want to miss out on.
Hopefully, you’re starting to see the power of this wagering strategy in these races. This is a way to lock up a race where normally you’d throw money away.
Dutch Betting Is Best In Chaos Boards
Races where the favorite is 5/2 or higher are where this strategy is best utilized. The guideline for chaos boards says to look for Dutch betting options. That makes the most sense because the public cannot make up their mind on who should be favored.
This is perfect to look for those longshot overlays and who is offering the most value.
If there is one type of race where you should embrace two-horse betting, it is these chaotic betting races.
Bet Smarter, Not Harder
Go back and look at recent races you have bet. Could you have used this strategy to win more races? Did you miss a race by not betting on your 2nd or 3rd choice that could have been Dutched with your top contender?
What about those logical races where you took a stab with a longer-priced horse, just to watch the favorite come in? Could you have bet both to win and secure money?
If you’re tired of just missing races and want to start winning more often without increasing your risk, Dutch betting is the tool you need to use.
Go into this week looking for races where the favorite is weak and look if you can place a two-horse win bet on your top contenders.
Remember, don’t force it. Only use this strategy when the horses are offering value with this method. It can change you from a break-even player to a profitable player.