Churchill Downs Spring Track Profile
Look at the 2024 Spring Meet and how to view shippers coming from Louisville this summer
Racing has wrapped up at Churchill Downs and now we shift focus to Ellis Park for Kentucky racing.
Knowing how the track played in Louisville will help find who is a contender when shipping out this summer.
Be sure to read until the end for a daily breakdown of possible bias plays to take advantage of with horses shipping out. This analysis could unlock a horse or help with eliminating a short price!
Dirt Sprints 4.5 Furlongs to 5.5 Furlongs
With the many sprint distances at Churchill Downs, I separate these abbreviated sprints into their own track profile. It is hard to truly have running styles play as much of a factor when it is more about who can run to the wire fastest.
It is easy to see that forward speed controlled these races. Horses off the pace were up against it. Look at the average positioning of winners. They were just off the leader in 2.63 place at the 1st call and 2.11 place at the 2nd call.
It is worth noting that the 4.5 furlong distance is all 2-year-old racing where speed is vital to win.
Dirt Sprints
Stalking runners had their way the entire meet. That stayed consistent throughout the two months at Churchill Downs. Closers are always hurt sprinting, and that was true here as well. The best chance closers had was at the 7-furlong distance.
At the same time, look at the early runners going 7-furlongs. They struggled to win, hitting at just 21%.
Post-draw wasn’t a huge deal here. When considering the average field size and breakdown per post group, nothing of significance stands out.
Dirt Mile
These races followed the same running style profile of the dirt sprints. Stalkers dominated going the mile distance. Not a massive sample size, but we saw this trend over the entire meet.
Early on, it looked as if the inside post draw was not the place to be. The first week, it appeared that we should toss anyone from posts 1-3. Then we saw a few inside runners get wins.
In fields shorter than the 8.44 average, we saw posts 1, 2, and 3 win. That makes me think that in full fields, the inside could be a disadvantage. I would consider that when handicapping a runner coming from a race with 8+ runners going a mile that was drawn inside.
Dirt Routes
Going two turns, stalkers continued to win at a high rate. They were even more dominant when routing, winning at a 53% clip.
Looking at positioning versus average field size, you see that horses that sat midpack were in prime position. That gives a better visual as to how these races were won.
Again, small average field sizes make post-draw not as important in these races. I wouldn’t worry too much about it as a whole unless we saw a bias on a specific day of racing.
Turf Sprints
Early runners dominated sprints on the turf at Churchill Downs. Just look at the average beaten lengths at each call. Winners were less than a length off the lead throughout the race.
That is a serious disadvantage to off-the-pace runners.
With that being said, I am looking forward to any off-the-pace runner coming out of a sprint race here. We know they had the track playing against them. Any race could produce a form reversal. It could be a switch to a dirt sprint, or even a turf route. They have an excuse and it could help lead to getting a horse at a price.
Turf Routes
The outside post-draw for a while looked to be the place to be. They hovered right around that 40% mark but finished at 39% of the wins at the meet’s end.
I find it interesting that post 4-6 struggled to win at the 1 mile & 1/16 distance. Something to keep in mind for shippers coming from Louisville.
Early runners were markers for the off-the-pace horses all meet. That was how you handicapped these races. Who gets the lead? Who can run to those times?
Those two answers got you to the winner the majority of the time.
Don’t overlook these early runners going into the summer where we can see turf tracks get hot and favor early speed. They could pose a great betting opportunity when the weather cooks the track in their favor.
I promised a daily bias breakdown and here it is!
These are the dates that I have marked down personally where we saw a bias with post-draw or running styles.
Use these dates as a tool for potential upgrades or downgrades on runners. The key is looking at who ran against the grain on a specific day, which could help lead to a form reversal in their next start.
Watch for These Dates at Churchill Downs
The following dates are ones that I would consider watching for when looking at the past performances of horses from Churchill Downs. The goal is to find horses that ran against the grain on these specific days. Many times you will see that closers were winless on specific dates. I think this is more important for stalkers who fell back too far and still…
Good to have you back.
I'm sure you know how important final fractions are in turf races. But be careful. Final fractions from Saratoga and Belmont inner turf and Monmouth turf are not usually relatable to Ellis Park, unless they are from the classier horses showing ability to well navigate various turf courses. Shiny final fractions from these tracks will fool bettors and you may find some prices. As always, good luck!