How to Tackle Fountain of Youth Week and Leverage Track Biases
Going over the Gulfstream Park track profile for Fountain of Youth Stakes Week, recapping two other tracks after Kentucky Derby points were handed out, and other biases to attack this week
This is the time of year when things start to fly. Kentucky Derby Preps are handing out more points and we’re seeing the heavy hitters start to show up.
Fountain of Youth Stakes is this week at Gulfstream Park and there is no better time to take advantage of the public. I have fully dove into this Championship Meet to help you this week and find where the public is lacking in the betting. There are plenty of opportunities to take advantage of this week when the situation arises. Do not get left out on these angles.
We’ll also recap how the tracks played for the John Battaglia and Rebel Stakes. Turfway Park is in the midst of a swing in how the sprints and routes are playing. If you remotely play here, you need to be informed of what is happening. Be sure you are on the right side of the trends.
The key to remember when handicapping the Fountain of Youth Stakes is that stalkers are winning 59% of races. That has to be viewed as a factor when breaking down this race. Horses on the lead have had a hard time holding off the forwardly placed stalkers.
With the increase in the betting handle, targeting these Tapeta sprints will be key. Posts 4-6 are winning 47% of races but just three weeks ago you saw them winning as many as 51% of races. Posts 1-3 have been tough to win from and many odds-on favorites have fallen when breaking from the inside.
Stalkers have had their way in the turf routes this Championship Meet. That is expected. There is something to keep an eye on this week and that is the early runners. Three weeks ago, they were winning the fewest amount of races but now have caught up to the closers in overall wins.
I’ve gone much deeper into each track profile in the write-up for this week at Gulfstream Park. Also, I have broken down the betting performance for each track profile. Talking about which tote boards are ones to attack and where the favorite has been performing well. There also is plenty on how the 2nd and 3rd choices have produced against these different types of favorites.
Pairing that with the track profile knowledge can help you make more informed wagering decisions this week and keep yourself ahead of the public that isn’t taking this into account.
Any early runner in these turf routes at Tampa has been a rabbit for the closers to chase down. That has been the story of the 14 weeks of racing. With that said, I do want to bring to your attention that last week four early horses did win. Keep an eye on this early this week in the turf routes. See if the early speed holds on or starts to be caught again as the track has played all meet.
You cannot overlook early speed in the dirt sprints or routes. They are winning 44% of sprints and 45% of routes. Closers on the dirt have won but are still far off from what the early and stalking runners have done. Target the horses who positionally can run forward on the dirt.
Any runner in posts 1-3 has to be viewed as a contender when looking at any dirt race at Fair Grounds. The next step is seeing if they can stay forward in the sprints or fit the race shape in the routes. Early runners are winning 42% of sprints. The routes continue to play fair as no one running style is winning over 35% of races.
Turf routes are still playing to the closers heavily. It’s important to be looking at the daily profiles over the past few weeks of racing. There have been running style and post position biases on certain days. That will be big when these horses run back in the coming weeks.
Big week for posts 1-3 sprinting, and not for good reason.
Last week, they went 1-for-15. That ONE horse who won was a 2/5 favorite. This is a big shake-up from what the track profile was saying the week prior. Over those four weeks leading up to last week, the inside posts were on a charge. Now we saw them get destroyed in the three days of racing last week.
The winning running styles in routes are changing too. Closers are not getting the job done lately. Last week, closers went 4-for-15. They were winning as high as 48% of races, and now they’re winning 41% of the time.
Be sure to account for these shifts when playing this week.
Just two days of racing last week at Oaklawn Park due to the weather playing a big factor.
We saw Coal Battle win the Rebel Stakes and make this Kentucky Derby picture that much more open. It seems like each prep ran from the east makes you come away with a different opinion of who is the top horse in this area.
The track played fair as expected down in Arkansas. This track is more about finding those days where a particular bias was in play and seeing who has upside in their next start. Finding horses who will be overplayed to eliminate is the name of the game here since field sizes are big.