Oaklawn Play on Your Busy Fountain of Youth Day
Take a look at a class and pace edge play in the 5th race today at Oaklawn Park
I’m sure you’re busy tacking the Fountain of Youth card today at Gulfstream Park, but I wanted to alert you to a vulnerable favorite today at Oaklawn Park.
His lone win was at Finger Lakes against a crawling pace. Today, he is 5/2 on the morning line and is a sitting duck against the projected fractions.
I’ll be targeting a 4/1 shot in this leg who is dropping into a class level that fits him perfectly. He can overcome faster fractions and will sit forward against a field of runners who like to sit mid-field, allowing the leaders to get away.
Be sure to check out the Gulfstream Park track profile for this week and the four other tracks if you’re bouncing around this weekend.
So far, this week at Gulfstream Park, the results have been as expected.
The dirt sprints going 7 furlongs have had three stalkers and a closer win. Early runners have just one win sprinting on the dirt, and it came in a 6 furlong race.
I bring up the 7 furlong distance because there are three races at this distance today.
No Tapeata sprints this Saturday, but a few notes. Both 5 furlong Tapeta sprints had a winner from posts 4-6 and 7+. Going 5.5 furlongs, there was a win from posts 7+, but three winners have come from posts 1-3.
Dig into those daily profiles today and see if you can catch anyone who ran against a bias in their prior start at Gulfstream Park. Plenty of money in the pools to look to extract on a day like this.
Why Fear of Union’s Class Towers Today at Oaklawn Park
The 5th race today in Hot Springs is one where I believe you can go skinny in horizontal wagers and have win tickets in play.
There isn’t a great deal of early speed in this race. 4 Charbon should be the early pacesetter, but 6 Mount Craig is naturally faster and should be the leader by the 1st call. Outside of these two, there aren’t any other horses who want to be on the front.
Positioning will be of the utmost importance to contend for the win.
More importantly, the 2nd call is where I say this race will be determined. Looking through at horses winning lines, these 2nd call times have been absurdly slow.
9 Tiz Wicked Strong is one of those horses. Three races back, he broke maiden against a 1:16 & 1/5 2nd call at Finger Lakes. After that race, he ran in a $35,000 claiming race here at Oaklawn Park. That was facing a 1:14 2nd call time and wasn’t able to win. Last time out, he moved up in class to a starter allowance race and got blown out facing a 1:13 & 3/5 2nd call.
The drop back down in class will attract attention in an open race, and with the competitive race two back, he will get backed by the public. He hasn’t faced a 2nd call slow enough to win, and he won’t today.
5/2 is way too low of a price on a horse with that body of work.
Looking just to the inside of him, 8 Fear of Union is the horse that fits the best in the pace scenario and has a massive class edge.
Starting with his $50,000 Maiden Claiming win two back, he ran the fastest 4 and 6-furlong times of any winner on that day. Even better is looking at the 2nd call time of 1:11 & 3/5. Facing a slower pace today makes him that much more dangerous since he wants to race in that forward to mid-pack position. Less stress equals more energy late in the race, making his driving finish stronger.
The key today is his race last time out. He was in way over his head for a claiming price of $55,000. An angle that I believe in is that maiden claiming winners are competitive against half their claiming price. That is exactly what Fear of Union is getting today. He is facing a group of $25,000 claimers and fits the angle perfectly coming out of that $50,000 maiden claiming win. The drop in class makes last time out a toss race and puts him in a very competitive situation today.
I’ve given fair odds of 5/2 on Fear of Union in this 5th race, but the key is tossing 9 Tiz Wicked Strong. He will be a short price and looks to be a great play against with the amount of money that will be on him. Tiz Wicked Strong needs crawling fractions to even be a factor, and Fear of Union is coming into a spot where he can outrun any of these other pressers in the race.