Spot Play with These Track Profiles During Belmont Stakes Week
Diving into the track profiles at Churchill Downs and Monmouth Park. Then, see three races with vulnerable horses today at Saratoga.
Happy Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga Week!
Don’t let the extra attention from the racing in New York take you away from looking to cash in on the other biases in play at Churchill Downs and Monmouth Park.
Racing in Kentucky continues to give good opportunities in the dirt routes with stalkers and posts 4-6 winning at a high rate. The dirt sprints have been playing consistently, too, with the results.
Out at Monmouth Park, there was a big shift in the track profile of winning post groups in the dirt sprints. Taking note of this will be vital this week.
After five weeks, stalkers are winning 55% of dirt routes. This continues to be one of the best biases to attack daily at Churchill Downs. Last week, early runners performed better than they have been. Watching how they perform this week will be important if there is a shift in the trend of winners.
Through 91 dirt sprints, posts 1-3 are winning 44% of races. Early runners are sitting at 45%. This has been a consistent profile week after week. Also, note that the 7.5 furlong races are added to the dirt sprints. That keeps the mile distance separate as its own profile.
Early runners are 4-for-34 in turf routes. Attacking them and looking for closers is the play. Why? Closers are winning 59% of turf routes at Churchill.
Posts 4-6 went 8-for-10 in the dirt sprints last week. They are now winning 46% of races. Five favorites in posts 1-3 lost last week. It will be important to watch their performance moving forward.
Closers are struggling on the dirt. In the sprints, they’re 3-for-41. Routing, they are 7-for-26.
Two things to watch in the turf routes. Posts 4-6 are 10-for-15, winning 67% of races. Stalkers are 9-for-15, and that is a 60% hit rate. As always, a small sample size of races, but two clear trends.
First Day of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga
If you didn’t get a chance to check it out the other day, see how the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival compared against the Saratoga meet last year. There are plenty of trends to watch and be ready for. Even with this being a handful of days of racing, watching how the track is playing will be important.
Handicap three races where there look to be vulnerable horses. We’ll go over two inner turf routes where there are short-priced early runners who should set the race up for the off-the-pace runners. Then, a 9/5 dirt sprinter who will need to show massive improvement and possibly a new running style to win the race. Both are causes for concern facing proven runners.