Two Ways to Leverage Your Opinions When Betting
Most horseplayers bet not aggressive enough, here are two ways to maximize your opinion in the pools.
You need to stop betting the same amount of money on every race you play.
Do you wager more money on races when you say you have an edge, or do you continue to flat bet?
Quit being the player who’s leaving a lot of money on the table.
We’ve talked about game theory and that in horse racing, it is being as aggressive as possible. Bet to make a score because you have selected a race where you say you have the edge.
Race selection is a skill developed over time, just like knowing how aggressive to be in your betting.
If you’re playing the right races, the ones where you truly have an edge, then you should be betting accordingly. Game theory in horse racing tells you one thing: bet aggressively when you have the edge, and stay out when you don’t.
Two different betting strategies can help give you guidance on how aggressive to be when betting. One of which you should start to use if you are comfortable with knowing when you have a big edge in a race and another that is more for helping guide you to leveraging your opinion.
Scaling Your Bets With The 6-4-2 Betting Model
This is like the classic prime bet, longshot bet, and action bet that many horseplayers have heard of, but few have an actual structure to guide them. The 6-4-2 strategy solves that problem by betting a percentage of your bankroll on the race.
Rather than blindly wagering the same amount on every race, this model adjusts bet size according to the strength of your opinion:
6% Bet: Your strongest play. These are high-confidence bets where you believe your horse has a true 50+% chance of winning, but the public undervalues it. This is when you push your edge. These bets are rare and maybe only a few per month come up.
4% Bet: Your core value bets, finding big overlays and the betting value is undeniable. These are races where you have a solid edge against the public, often because a false favorite is overbet or your contender has significant upside.
2% Bet: Grinding plays or educated decision bets. These races may not offer massive overlays but still present a reasonable chance to beat the public and keep your bankroll turning over.
This betting strategy is key for those of you who like to play horizontal or vertical wagers keying your horse or horses. Say, for example, you have a 4% bet, and you have $40 to wager. You could use $30 on a win ticket and then the other $10 on exactas or daily doubles, looking to press your opinion even further. You might even spend all $40 on a pick 3 play if the sequence looks playable to you.
Another option could be using the percentage on a two-horse Dutch bet. This is a great strategy when dealing with the 2% wagers. You can grind out races waiting to make your more aggressive plays.
The possibilities are endless when deciding you’re going to use a fixed percentage on a play.
Breaking your plays into how much of your bankroll you are willing to risk is the best way to leverage your opinion and edge as a handicapper and bettor.
You’re not just betting more because you “like a horse.” Your bet size is determined by how much the public is mispricing the race relative to the probability chance you’ve given to a contender through your handicapping.
This is why creating your value line and knowing the fair odds you give a horse is critical. If you don’t make a value line to create fair odds, you’re flying blind.
Leveraging Your Value Line to Optimize Your Wagers
The other betting approach is more centered around win betting and adjusting your bet based on your value line. For any race you plan on betting, you need to know what percentage chance your contenders have to win the race. Making a value line gives you that knowledge and can turn you into a sharper player.
Here are the guidelines to how to play a contender off your value line:
If your contender’s odds are higher than your value line, bet to win.
If your contender’s odds are 3+ times higher than your value line, bet to win and place.
If your contender’s odds are 6+ times higher than your value line, bet to win, place, and show.
Before everyone comes to bombard me about place and show betting, you need to think about the massive overlay you are playing when your contender is 3+ times higher than your value line. It is likely to pay out its fair odds or more in the place pool. The same goes for contenders 6+ times higher on your value line in the show pool.
This is a simple but effective strategy because it forces you to stay disciplined by betting only on overlay contenders. If you are not comfortable with the 6-4-2 method, this one will keep you in the mindset of only playing when you have an opinion on the race.
The Reality of Betting Methods
All of this is a great way to leverage your opinion, but there is still one major factor to remember:
If your handicapping isn’t strong enough to gain a profit from flat betting or betting a fixed percentage, there is no way in the long run to manipulate any kind of betting method.
Yet again, the emphasis is on race selection and finding those spots where you can beat the public. Continue to sharpen your skill on race selection and turn it into becoming a shaper bettor.
As long as you stay within your limits, your chances of tapping out are minimal if you have a good opinion. Keep that mentality when passing races. Realize that you are putting yourself in a position to win by sitting out.
Your bankroll is a weapon; use it where the public is wrong.
Challenge yourself to find an approach that fits with leveraging your opinion in the races you are betting. Track it and see if your profits grow faster than just flat betting all your plays.