Was There a Speed Bias Saturday at Fair Grounds?
Reviewing the results from Risen Star Day and if a speed bias was in play at Fair Grounds.
Was there a speed bias in the dirt routes at Fair Grounds this Saturday during the Risen Star card?
I say no.
A speed bias to me in handicapping is when all winners come from on the lead or within a length of the lead at all points of the race. That simply did not happen Saturday in the dirt routes.
Horseplayers like to make claims of a speed bias but further analysis can tell a different story.
Let’s go back and look at the five dirt routes, thoughts going into the race and the results. Go back to your past performances and see if your handicapping analysis or opinions should change.
Race 2
The first thing to note is that this race had just four runners and none of them have won from the lead. In this race, someone is going to be in a position that is new to them. I’d say that many agreed that 3 Trust Fund Philly should have an easy lead in this race. She is coming out of three sprint races and challenged for the lead in her last start. Utilizing pace figures would support this as well.
That left the other three horses in a positional scenario they could overcome.
1 Pretty Sassy won coming from 3rd place and 1.5 lengths off the pace. Trust Fund Philly set the slowest 2-furlong time on the day in this race which produced a stalking winner.
Race 3
This race is a classic example of what should be classified as a chaos race. Of the nine runners, six of them are routing for the first time in this race. The famous handicapping phrase “Don’t bet on a horse trying something for the first time,” could be applied here.
Projecting can only do so much in these races. You do not know how horses truly can perform going around two turns.
Of the two horses that have shown the ability to lead both are sprinters who are routing for the first time in this race, 2 Rosalba the Wicked, and 7 Global Value. Global Value did so against maiden claiming horses and is moving back up in class. Rosalba the Wicked had the edge here to have the lead due to pace figures and the class edge of doing so against maiden special weight runners. She set the fractions through the first three calls of the race. The 4 and 6-furlong calls were the slowest times on the day of all routes.
1 Canal Street stalked from 3rd place and a length off the pace to win. Yet another race where the speed was caught.
Race 9
This is the race where I believe many started to say there was a speed bias in the dirt routes.
Three horses were making their first career start. Again, these are complete wild cards when it comes to judging pace and running styles. When evaluating the early speed, there was 5 Yinzer and 7 Morlock. These two finished 1st and 2nd in the race running in that order the whole trip. Yinzer set fractions of 46 & 4/5 at the 4-furlong call and 1:11 & 3/5 at the 6-furlong call.
The two main contenders in this field were 1 Only in America and 2 Cromwell. Only in America in his lone race ran as a stalker at Gulfstream Park. If you aren’t following along in Florida, stalkers have been the dominant running style in two-turn dirt routes. He ran with the bias and was a distant 2nd place finisher in his lone race. Cromwell is a deep closer who has come up short twice in routes.
I bring this up because the fractions that Yinzer set in this race made their chances of winning even higher when reviewing the results. These are fractions that a deep closer should thrive under but Cromwell fell further away from the pace at each call in this race.
Positioning matters most in maiden racing. Horses on or near the lead win more races than average. Why? No one has won yet and learned how to pass horses to win. Until they do so, they are not proven. That goes for all running styles.
Race 11
Yet another race of a stalker coming in to win. 4 Hall of Fame was the 8/5 favorite and not an early runner. The pace looked like one that should have been hot with 3 Tuscan Sky and 7 Batten Down when looking at their dueling race on November 3rd. Neither of them took the lead, 6 Maycocks Bay did.
Hall of Fame sat in 3rd, 1.5 lengths behind the pace before taking over down the stretch. Pacesetter Maycocks Bay was caught coming out of the turn. I’d argue that if there was a true speed bias on the dirt, he would have held the lead longer down the lane. That wasn’t the case in this race. He was overtaken easily.
Race 13
Small field of just four runners but another winner who stalked to win, 2 Good Cheer. Yes, she was 1/9 and the clear choice in this race, but the point is that the early speed of 4 Gowells Delight did not win the race.
Good Cheer was two lengths off the pace at the 4-furlong call and actually in 4th coming out of the turn. That was just 1.5 lengths off the leader but further proves how there wasn’t a speed bias in play.
Race 14
This is where the tweets were rolling in about how a speed bias was formed at Fair Grounds. That was interesting considering the race before had a stalking winner.
It starts with the early pace and three horses need the lead to win; 1 American Promise, 4 East Avenue, and 13 Magnitude. Where I will agree with many people is that handicapping Magnitude to take the lead isn’t something I saw coming either. He was able to outrun East Avenue, which was sent off as the 4/5 favorite.
Now, if there was ever a time to say a horse passes the eye test, this is it. Magnitude blows out this field and wins by 9.75 lengths. Does that mean there’s a speed bias? Four of the five previous races have been won by stalkers.
The other factor that seems to be forgotten here is that we’re dealing with Triple Crown potential 3-year-olds. These are rapidly improving horses and massive improvements can come from race to race. That is what makes the Kentucky Derby Prep season what it is. You never truly know what to expect.
How to View Risen Star Day Results?
What can we take from this Saturday card at Fair Grounds? I’d say a few things.
Be happy other handicappers believe there was a speed bias on the day. That is the name of this game, leveraging your opinions versus the rest of the public. When looking at the results on the day, it will go down as a speed/stalker day, but not a true speed bias day.
The other thing to note is race selection. Early in the day, we had to battle races with multiple first-time starters and horses routing for the first time. Those are handicapping situations that are pure guesses for bettors. You have to tread lightly in these races with so many unknowns.
When comparing the positioning of winners to the track profile of Fair Grounds, the average on Saturday is right in line with what the twelve weeks of racing have been. I won’t be overreacting to the results and look to upgrade stalkers that didn’t win or downgrade early runners.
Do you agree or disagree with how I or others view it? Let everyone know what you think about the results from Saturday in the comments.
Quote “Don’t bet on a horse trying something for the first time,” could be applied here is incomplete. Harvey Pack said betting a horse as favorite “Don’t bet on a horse trying something for the first time,” could be applied here.
Thanks for your analysis, Ryan. I do agree with you that there was not a track bias for the reasons you indicated. Horses coming off the pace won previous races. In Magnitude’s case, Asmussen had Curtis put him out on the lead, something they hadn’t done with him. East Avenue had a perfect stalking trip but couldn’t get the job done.