How to Classify Races and Make Sharper Bets Like a Pro
Learn how to classify races efficiently, compare your opinions to the tote board, and focus on races with a real edge.
Did you know most horseplayers cost themselves money by betting the wrong races?
They spend time handicapping, picking contenders, and analyzing past performances—only to make bets in races where they have no edge. What’s worse is that losses bring tweaks to handicapping instead of evaluating if playing the race was the correct call.
The truth is, not every race is worth betting.
Most players make the same mistake over and over:
They force bets in races where the public has already found the right horses.
They get stuck on their “A” horses and ignore value elsewhere.
They pass on great opportunities in chaotic races because they don’t have a framework to navigate uncertainty.
There’s a better way—a faster and more effective method to classify races and instantly know whether you should bet, what type of bet to make, and where the value is.
How to Make Smarter Bets Without the ABC Handcuffs
For years, horseplayers have used the ABC method to categorize contenders. But this approach has a major flaw: it is optimized for ticket structure, not race selection. It often forces you to bet only your “A” horses, even when the public is driving their odds too low.
The key to smarter, more profitable betting isn’t just ranking horses, it’s understanding how the public is pricing them and finding where the inefficiencies are.
Stop looking at the labeling of your A, B, or C horses to evaluate the competitiveness of a race. The ABC method is great for structuring tickets, but it doesn’t help you decide whether the race itself is worth betting on. Instead, classify the race itself based on how strong the top two betting choices are.
Classify the Race Based on Competitiveness
Every race falls into one of four categories based on how likely the top betting choices are to win:
Chalky - The top two betting choices are likely to win over 60% of the time.
These races are hard to beat because the favorites are strong and payouts are low.
Strategy: Look for singles in horizontals or pass entirely.
Predictable - The top two choices are likely to win around 50% of the time.
The public is mostly right, but there is an opportunity to exploit.
Strategy: Key your top contenders if they offer value when compared to what the public is betting.
Open - The top two choices are likely to win below 50% of the time.
These races are the best opportunity for targeting overlay contenders.
Strategy: Key B horses on top, and hedge with your A’s in the verticals and horizontals.
Chaos - The top two betting choices like to win below 40% of the time.
These are the races to target overlays or any longshot you see as a contender.
Strategy: Embrace that uncertainty and avoid betting weak favorites. Take advantage of the inflated prices on everyone outside of the top choices.
Let’s now think about how you have separated the two for the better. You have ranked your contenders with the ABC method, but you also have evaluated the betting of the public. Looking at the top two betting choices and their chance of winning helps guide you to when you have an edge or not.
Use the Tote Board to Confirm the Best Betting Approach
Now, combine your race classification with the four tote board types to refine your betting decisions. You will have guardrails to making profitable wagers over the long term. For example, here are some cases you’ll face daily:
• Monster Board + Chalky Race = Pass, the favorite is too strong.
• Balanced Board + Predictable Race = Look for value within your contenders.
• Open Board + Chaos Race = Prime opportunity for a two-horse win bet or longshot overlays.
• 2-Horse Board + Open Race = Consider avoiding the win pool and playing exactas instead.
By using both methods together, you create a framework that determines when to bet, what to bet, and where the value is based on your handicapping opinions. This helps you see when you are or aren’t agreeing with what the public is saying. For those monster or balanced boards and you say you are looking at a chalky race, just know you aren’t looking at much potential value.
Why This Method Works
The biggest advantage of this system? It factors in your strength as a handicapper to how the public is betting on the race.
The focus of your A, B, and C horses is for optimized bets, not race selection.
You make better decisions because you’re comparing your contenders to how the public is betting.
You eliminate low-value bets and focus on races where you have an edge.
Go back and look at your past bets. How many losing races could you have skipped? How many great opportunities did you miss because you were stuck in the ABC mindset?
This week, challenge yourself to classify every race before placing a bet. See how it changes your approach. I guarantee you’ll start betting smarter and seeing what races you should be passing on.
Let me know what you think—have you been using something similar, or is this a completely new way of looking at races for you?