Every Kentucky Oaks Day Race Broken Down in 60 Seconds

Race analysis for Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs and three key races to target

13 Races. 13 Minutes. Let’s attack this Kentucky Oaks card.

Below, we’ll dive deeper into three key races today at Churchill Downs. After watching, let’s hear which race or races you’re targeting today on this Kentucky Oaks card.

Three Key Races on Oaks Day

These are the three races before scratches that I’m giving the most attention to. With how chalky some of the other races look today, these look to be spots to eliminate a favorite, a short price, or to go narrow.

Race 5

The first of the stakes races on Oaks Day, and I’m looking to start with a bang.

What price are you willing to play Nitrogen?

Say 3/2, do you bet her?

I’m looking to eliminate her.

Let’s go through her 2025 races, starting three races back at Gulfstream Park. Stalkers and closers won all races on January 4th. Nitrogen ran with the bias. At Tampa Bay on March 8th, no horses in posts 1-3 won on the day. Nitrogen was in post 9. Then, at Keeneland on April 8th, all turf routes were won from post 1. Nitrogen won from post 1.

That is three straight races where she has had the track playing to her advantage. Everyone is going to jump on her, and that 8/5 morning line is wishful thinking.

I’ll look for a reversal of results and take 7 Lush Lips on top. First off, she is the only early runner in this field of 8 horses. In that start at Tampa Bay where Nitrogen caught her at the wire, she ran faster than any winner at the 2-furlong mark. There shouldn’t be as much pressure on her at that stage in this race. Thus giving her more energy late in the race.

Lastly, don’t overlook 2 Vixen. She was in post 2 in that Keeneland race that Nitrogen won. So clearly, the inside was the place to be on the day. I would expect her to be the horse people look to beat Nitrogen. I just wouldn’t want to be holding a ticket with her at 2/1 or less.

Bottom line, looking to beat Nitrogen in this race.

Race 9

The Eight Belles is always one of the most exciting races on Oaks Day, and one that can bring a good shake-up. That’s what I’m looking for in an elimination of a horse that will take money.

5 Verity has been dominating and comes in with a big win on a sloppy, sealed track at Keeneland on April 6th. One of the angles I like playing is looking to fade horses who ran a competitive race on off-track. These horses usually regress harder. Verity fits that angle, and in a race with this caliber of runners, any bit of regression will be hard to overcome.

I’m not going to let the layoff bother me from going to 10 Impulse Buy. She can run on the pace or, more importantly, off it, like she did in her last start in 2024.

The pace in this race today should be the same demands of the win she had in that stakes race last time out. Moving up in class big time, but she has been steady in the workouts coming into this race. It will just be a matter of whether the time off gets to her late with these other horses that are in race shape.

Also, I’m not someone who likes playing horses coming off maiden wins. But 7 Mandela was very impressive in her win last time out. She ran one-fifth off the fastest winner on the day at Oaklawn Park at the 2-furlong call before setting the fastest fractions at the 4 and 6 furlong calls. That is an impressive feat for any maiden.

Like I touched on with Impulse Bay, off-the-pace running will be important with the early speed in this race, which could take each other out. Mandela has two good races that prove she can navigate through a field.

Race 10

The expectation is that 4 Ag Bullet should roll in this turf sprint with the big drop in class. I don’t disagree, but there is a threat I see who is making a logical step up in class.

If 5 Epona’s Hope can run those last two races today, she can steal this race on the front end. The positive is that early runners were 11-for-16 last spring at Churchill Downs. In this race, there isn’t a big threat of early runners, so the stretch out to 5.5 furlongs isn’t as much of a concern to me.

If the odds allow for a Dutch bet opportunity, I would pull the trigger here with the 4 Ag Bullet and 5 Epona’s Hope. I think they tower over this field and look to have a higher probability of winning than the public may say.