Targeting Races to Play the Speed Bias at Keeneland
If you are not playing this speed bias in the dirt routes at Keeneland, you only have two more days left! Do not miss out on a great opportunity.
Just two more days of this Keeneland meet left, and dang, does it feel like we are just getting started?
Positive will be the Derby next week and into the thick of the racing season.
Three races to look at for this Thursday card at Keeneland. Two are looking to target the speed bias that is so strong in the dirt routes. The other is more of a red alert, and going over why the favorite should get pummeled off their morning line. If there ever has been a legit favorite, this would be it.
Then, go over the angles to confirm tossing horses from the performance of them at the Spring Meet. This can help you realize that spreading isn’t always the best when including a horse that fits some of these criteria. It can be a good eye-opener for contender selection.
Race 1
A race that I’d consider chaotic since three horses are running in a route for the first time in their career. Also, three of them are on the dirt for the first time, too.
This does look like a chalky race to come, but the odds should be reversed between the 1st and 2nd choices in my opinion. 5 Vino Bella is running for a claiming tag again in the maiden ranks, but her last race is one to build on. In that start, she ran faster at the 2 and 6 furlong calls than any winner on March 9th at Fair Grounds. Also, take note that all stalkers won on that day.
Vino Bella was an early runner. She faded and lost to a heavy favorite. Normally, horses having multiple tries at this level are a negative. The difference is that Vino Bella’s first attempt can be tossed since it was on the turf. Today is now or never for her at this level, and the track will be to her advantage.
6 Protocol will be the favorite and for good reason, getting the drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming. I cannot discount that in this spot. Especially since she ran faster than winners at the 2 and 4 furlong calls in her lone start. What is concerning is that she saw a similar pace that Vino Bella can run. I don’t feel anything was flashy enough to where Protocol overpowers Vino Bella.
Maybe the class relief is too much, and Protocol rolls, but I’d say to watch the odds as post time comes. If Vino Bella is above 5/2, she will be an automatic play. I also wouldn’t object to looking at Dutch betting this combination since they look to be above this field. I’m just assuming odds won’t allow for that strategy.
Race 3
I’ll keep riding the speed blindly in these dirt routes. Yesterday, you should have had the $22 winner in the 7th race if you played the track profile. There are only two more days to take advantage of this, and I’ll go down with the ship at this point.
2 Lady Emily Kathryn is getting on the dirt for the first time in her career. This Keeneland meet is the place to do it with her early speed.
Looking at her last race on the Tapeta at Gulfstream Park gives her good upside today. On that March 26th date, all stalkers and closers won in the Tapeta routes. When looking at the fractions, Lady Emily Kathryn ran faster than any winner at the 2 and 4 furlong calls. She did match the fastest winner’s 6-furlong time, too.
The next factor here is the performance of posts 1-3 in the dirt routes at Keeneland. After adding in Wednesday’s results, posts 1-3 are now winning 62% of races.
This race sets up for logical stalkers of 1 Best Seller and 6 Windy Walk to run to the fractions that Lady Emily Kathryn can run. What makes Lady Emily Kathryn the top play here is that she should be at better odds out of this trio. Both Best Seller and Windy Walk are dropping in class, and that will get the attention in the betting.
I’ll continue to ride this bias and take the horse who will be the early leader in the race, 2 Lady Emily Kathryn.
Race 6
Anything can happen in maiden races, and especially when dealing with multiple first-time starters. The only problem is that this field is facing a horse that has run into some bad luck in her two starts.
9 Velvet Devil’s races are hard to poke any holes in. On debut, she ran one-fifth off the faster winner on the day at the 2 and 6 furlong calls. She lost to the favorite in that race. Then in her 2nd career start, she ran one-fifth off the fastest winner at the 2 furlong call. Velvet Devil then matched the fastest winner’s times at the 4 and 6 furlong calls. Yet again, she lost to the favorite in that race.
Where the dominance shows is when looking at the Bris Speed Figures. She ran an 86 in her first race and a 93 last time out. Velvet Devil’s 86 is eight points higher than anyone’s best speed figure in this race.
The point I’m trying to make is that Velvet Devil looks to be a legit favorite, towers over this field, and 5/2 would be an absolute gift. Expect the morning line price not to be there come post time. The last thing I’m going to do is throw a parade if she wins. It's more about bringing to your attention that she is hard to eliminate at all.
The real concern is 5 Magical Day.
Remember when we talked about horses with competitive races over off tracks. In their next start, they normally regress harder. The difference is that Magical Day is coming in off an almost four-month layoff. I wouldn’t expect that hard race to be as much of a factor, but it is still something to consider. The next thing is the pace setup of this race. Magical Day looks to be a need-the-lead type of runner. Velvet Vortex showed the ability to press in her first race and run on the lead in her second race.
Yet again, another positive for Velvet Vortex. I’d expect to see her go off at 8/5 in this race. Don’t be scared to sit out a race with a horse that seems to have everything going for her.
Update on Angles for Contender Selection at Keeneland
The seven angles to help with contender selection are up to date through April 23rd. Again, let this be a way to understand where you may be wasting money on runners that are not performing.
The best way to think about this is not overspreading. Don’t make an excuse for a horse that truly doesn’t deserve one. This is a big reality check when you see the win rates.
Again, the seven angles are:
20/1+ Morning Line Runners
Track Odds of 20/1+
Winners Last Time Out
Maiden Winner Last Time Out
No In-The-Money Finishes in Last 6 Races
5/1+ Odds in Last 6 Races
1st Time Lasix